"Exploring the Impact of Silk Roads, BRICS Roads, and Sino-Roads in the Year of the Dragon"
In 2024, four major trends will define the interconnected Eurasian ...
Heading into the year 2024, four primary trends will significantly impact the development of interconnected Eurasia.
1. Financial and trade integration is predicted to be a common occurrence. Examples of this can be seen in Russia and Iran who have integrated their financial message transfer systems to bypass SWIFT, settling trades in their own national currencies. Similarly, Russia and China have started to settle their accounts in rubles and yuan, pairing China's extensive industrial capacity with Russia's vast resources.
2. The economic integration of formerly Soviet locales leaning towards Eurasia is foreseeable to flow not predominantly via the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), but closely aligned with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
3. Substantial pro-Western advances into Central Asia are less likely. The Central Asian countries will be steadily integrated into a unified Eurasian economy organized through the SCO.
4. The confrontation between the Western dominated world order and Eurasia integration is anticipated to intensify. This will be represented by two sides, the Hegemony and its allies Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia versus the integration of Eurasia, represented by the three primary BRICS nations (Russia, China, Iran) along with the DPRK, and the Arab world incorporated into a larger BRICS 10.
On the matter, Russian Sergey Karaganov has stated, "We should not deny our European roots; we should treat them with care... But Russia must move forward. And forward does not mean to the West, but to the East and the South. That is where the future of humanity lies.”
Alluding to China's broad vision, it was noted that Chinese rail trips in the year 2023 reached a record 3.68 billion.
Advancements in technology such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) are also becoming prominent in China, set on becoming a global leader by 2030. This progress is seen, for example, in tech companies like Baidu, which recently introduced their AI product, Ernie Bot. Also noteworthy is the development of an AI chip by Chinese scientists called the ACCEL chip. This chip is capable of performing 4.6 quadrillion operations per second, much greater than NVIDIA's A100 which clocks in at 0.312 quadrillion operations per second of deep learning performance.
With China consistently producing more STEM graduates than the U.S., their prominence in science and mathematics competitions is impressive. This fortifies them even further in their journey into the future, and not just in AI.
Looking at nations leading in 44 key technology sectors provides a clear picture: China leading in 37 sectors, the U.S. in only 7, and every other nation leads in none.
In understanding China's growth, the reminiscence of the era of Deng Xiaoping is enlightening. Deng built on the infrastructure Mao had initiated, hearing credit for transforming China from one of the world's most backward agrarian nations into the sixth-largest industrial power by the mid-1970s.
The consequences of this transformation are still being dealt with in the current Xi era, with continuous interference from the contradictions between China and the western Hegemony.
As predictions go, 2024 is expected to see increased China scrutiny across the Beltway. This could even escalate to a newer version of the Cold War, with China as the prime threat, if a Republican presidency takes place. The upcoming Taiwan election also holds potential for further escalations if pro-independence candidates win.