The former US President Donald Trump made a brief reappearance this week at the heart of European politics.
As recounted by Thierry Breton, the EU's Internal Market Chief, Trump assured the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in 2020 that “if Europe is under assault, we will not come to provide aid or support.”
Breton's remarks were made during an event at the European Parliament, just a week prior to Iowa's caucus and the commencement of voting in the US Republican presidential primaries, which Trump is expected to win. Simultaneously, Breton announced a proposal for a 100 billion Euro fund to bolster ammunition production across the bloc, an announcement which did not escape the scrutiny of his critics.
Several EU officials and diplomats pointed out to CNN that this sudden recall occurred at a rather sensitive time, as the EU endeavours to construct its own defense capabilities, independent of the US-led NATO alliance. It's no secret that arms stockpiles in NATO member states were depleted due to Western military support to Ukraine.
To European officials, whether Trump genuinely made these comments or not is largely inconsequential. The former president's views regarding the historical role of the US in European security are well documented. Throughout his presidency, Trump was vocal about defunding NATO while simultaneously praising authoritarian leaders, such as Russia's Vladimir Putin, considered adversaries of the same military alliance.
A reminder of Trump's stance on this issue, coupled with the possibility of his return to the White House, is deeply concerning to Brussels.
In part, this is due to the uncomfortable truth that European nations have underfunded their militaries for decades, under the assumption that war was unlikely and that the US would rush to their aid if the situation deteriorated. As naïve as this assumption may seem, Trump dispelled it. Even now, his hostility toward Ukraine's war effort impacts the Republican Party's reluctance to approve additional US funds for Ukraine.
"Trump's tenure made us aware of the possibility that the US may not always act in Europe's interests, especially if it contradicts US interests," a senior EU diplomat told CNN. "It may sound naïve to say it out loud, but many people operated under this assumption."
During Trump's presidency, this realization prompted Europe to take stock of itself. Officials concluded that Europe needed to prepare for a future where the US could not be relied upon in the same way it had been previously. This notion was underscored when President Joe Biden retained many of Trump's America-first policies, particularly in relation to trade and China.
This is the second reason why reminders of Trump's anti-European sentiments are painful: despite their best intentions, Europe's strategy for shielding itself from Trump, as it is crudely termed by some, hasn’t significantly progressed.
In terms of trade, Europe took steps to decrease its dependence on individual nations and diversify supply chains to prevent potential blackmail if a trade partner unexpectedly altered their policies, as Trump did with steel, by imposing 25% tariffs on imports from the US to the European Union.
"No amount of risk reduction can offset the impact of a sudden policy change that makes it harder for Europeans to sell to the US," says Ian Bond, the Deputy Director for the Centre for European Reform. "In a second term, it's not unthinkable that he could decide that some other material poses a security risk to the US."
In matters of defense and security, the EU acknowledged its past failures and agreed to ramp up defense spending across the bloc and the continent as a whole. It took the war in Ukraine very seriously, sending billions of Euros in funding along with weapons and aid. The EU is also straining to integrate Ukraine into the bloc as soon as possible.
Historically, provoking Russia and sending this level of European funding and resources to a third party would have been impossible, as member states would almost certainly disagree over whether it was in their national interest. The rapid and extensive support for Ukraine that the EU has been able to mobilize since the beginning of the invasion is remarkable.
However, the uncomfortable reality is that rearming 27 countries and altering their trade practices is a slow process...
