The forthcoming East African Community (EAC) Heads of State Summit, expected to take place on February 28, may see a change in leadership. The current chair, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, is likely to pass on the mantle to a successor.
The upcoming event will most likely take place in Arusha, Tanzania. The leaders of the EAC will be tasked with selecting a new chair from candidates including Tanzania's John Pombe Magufuli, Kenya's Uhuru Kenyatta, or possibly Salva Kiir of South Sudan, to lead the six-member bloc.
Originally planned for November 2019, the summit was postponed due to discord among the member states. A formal request for delay was made by Tanzania, pointing to exhaustive calendars. Observers also noted a strained relationship between Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni and Kagame, another factor that encouraged the postponement.
Whether taking place now or delayed again, the upcoming summit will have various challenges to address. These include resolving disagreements between Museveni and Kagame, working on a timeline for the formation of a unity government in South Sudan with a deadline on February 22, and dealing with the ensuing presidential elections in Burundi. Several EAC members have had strained relations with Burundi's outgoing President Pierre Nkurunziza, who hasn't attended any EAC summit since a coup attempt in 2015.
Julius Maganda Wandera, the Minister of State for East African Affairs, informed that no EAC member state has so far communicated any intention of cancelling the summit, hence, preparations are ongoing. Nevertheless, Wandera also mentioned the possibility of the summit being postponed again or even the current chair being granted an extended term. He reminded that Museveni continued as EAC chair in 2017 due to it being an election year in Kenya and again in 2018 when President Kagame chaired the African Union.
The implementation of the summit, as per the law, should be between November and February. If it fails to take place in this time frame, an Extraordinary Summit might be convened in April, said Wandera.
Apart from dealing with these challenges, the EAC members will concentrate on sending technical teams to Arusha on February 20, followed by a Council of Ministers meeting on February 24.
One significant roadblock to the harmony of the summit might be the unresolved disagreement between Museveni and Kagame. The dispute is going a full circle as it is close to a year since Rwanda imposed a border lockdown with Uganda. Critics argue that resolving this tension outside the EAC, such as in Angola, raises questions on the bloc's capability.
Aspects of hope emerge from the recent quadripartite summit held in Luanda, the Angolan capital, where a dialogue was arranged between Uganda and Rwanda, scheduled for February 21. The summit was organized by Angolan President Joao Lorenco and Felix Tshesekedi, the president of DRC, and the meeting is to take place at Katuna, the Rwanda-Uganda border point.
Yet, Julius Maganda, the Minister of East African Affairs, suggested that this planned meeting can be rescheduled easily depending on circumstances.
The stalemate between Rwanda and Uganda drags on with talks yielding little progress. Days after the reciprocal prisoner release by both nations, the killing of a Ugandan citizen left negotiations back on square one. While the outlook is uncertain, the EAC summit could provide important progress, or raise further questions.
